Best Bets Week 2 Nfl
Well, that didn’t go so hot.
Pick: Browns 21, Bengals 17. Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-7) Sunday, 1 p.m. This is not the week the Steelers want to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. Pick: Colts -1.5, Hines over 21.5 receiving yards, Pascal over 3.5 receptions Chicago Bears (-7.5, 47) at. NFL Week 17 best bets: Picks for Sunday night game. 67d ESPN Betting Insiders. NBA All-Star Game: Steph Curry wins another 3-point contest. Golden State Warriors. NFL Best Bets Today. Find all of our Best NFL bets today, right here on our NFL Best Bets page. There are countless ways in which you can wager on an NFL game and with up to 16 matches a week and at times, 14 games on a Sunday, being selective in your wagering is one of the most important aspects in achieving long-term betting.
After a profitable 2019 season, we were 0-for-3 here in our 2020 Week 1 underdog selections as the Carolina Panthers (by a point), Cleveland Browns (23.5 points) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.5 points) all fell short of covering. And, yes, “falling short” hardly covers it with the Browns.
Cleveland will try to pick itself up off the mat this week and so will we. Here are your Week 2 NFL underdog bets, utilizing the early Thursday lines from BetMGM.
NFL underdog best bets: Week 2
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Recency bias is evident here as a Philly team, coming off an ugly 27-17 road loss as a favorite in Washington, is a home dog against an LA squad coming off a hard-fought home win in primetime over the Dallas Cowboys.
Injuries have hit the Eagles hard so far, but things are looking up on that front with RB Miles Sanders and OT Lane Johnson appearing on track to return and play Sunday after missing the opener. Johnson’s presence is more important than you might think as Philly is 36-17 with the All-Pro left tackle in the lineup during head coach Doug Pederson’s tenure and 6-12 without him, including last week when Washington racked up eight sacks in the comeback win.
The Rams are anything but road slouches after going 6-2 against the spread away from home a year ago, but they’re traveling cross country to play an early game Sunday at 10 a.m. Pacific time against a smarting Eagles bunch in its home opener.
Go with Philly to cover (+1.5, -110) and win outright (+100).
Looking to place a bet on these games or others? Get some action with an NFL bet at BetMGM in NJ, IN, CO and WV. Bet Now!
Detroit Lions (+6) at Green Bay Packers
The Lions opened in true Lions fashion last week as they blew a 23-6 fourth-quarter lead at home and saw rookie RB D’Andre Swift drop a potential winning touchdown reception late in a 27-23 defeat against the Chicago Bears.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, was carving up the host Minnesota Vikings in Week 1’s other NFC North head-to-head matchup, throwing for 364 yards and four TDs in a 43-34 victory.
A quick glance at the recent Packers-Lions series, though, shows Detroit surprisingly has had the upper hand, winning four of the last six meetings outright and going 6-0 ATS.
Green Bay squeaked out 23-22 and 23-20 wins a season ago, and we’re banking on a similar result Sunday at Lambeau Field (sadly) sans 81,000 cheese-headed fans.
Take the Lions and the 6 points (-110).
Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
Going from Lambeau, the league’s second-oldest stadium, to one of the newest, the Silver & Black open Allegiant Stadium with a Monday Night Football matchup against the Saints.
The “Death Star” will be devoid of fans as well, but expect head coach Jon Gruden’s crew to be fired up nonetheless to christen its shiny new Sin City digs.
The Saints were tough on the road with 6-1 straight up and ATS marks a season ago, but it wouldn’t be a shocker to see a little bit of letdown following last Sunday’s big divisional home win over Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Go with the Raiders +5.5 (-110) to keep things within the number.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
Every Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian (1-2-1 last week, 19-30-2 overall), Joe Fortenbaugh (0-4, 31-55-1), Anita Marks (14-10, 92-98-2), Preston Johnson (1-1, 15-20), Mike Clay (1-0, 16-10) and Tyler Fulghum (1-5, 58-78-2), sports betting deputy editor David Bearman (2-2, 31-22), Seth Walder (2-2, 48-31) of ESPN analytics and Aaron Schatz (4-0, 40-43-2) of Football Outsiders will tell us what they like from the weekend's slate.
Note: Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and subject to change.
Sunday's 8:20 p.m. ET game
Washington Football Team (-1.5, 43.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Fortenbaugh: The toxicity that is 2019 first-round selection Dwayne Haskins has been removed from the equation, thus paving the way for Washington to resume its march toward an improbable divisional crown. Washington ranks third in opponent yards per play and hasn't allowed a single foe to score more than 20 points in six straight games. That's bad news for Eagles rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts, who now has three games' worth of tape for Washington to study, a tape that shows a worrisome 54.7% completion rate and four turnovers in three starts.
Pick: Washington -1.5
Marks: A lot is riding on whether Alex Smith starts at QB for Washington, but we are burying the lead. The key for Washington has been its defense, specifically a front seven that will be a force to be reckoned with for Hurts. Pass-rusher Chase Young is licking his chops. The Eagles' season is over, and there is the possibility they could rest some players. There has also been speculation about coach Doug Pederson's future with the organization. Washington is in the driver's seat to win the NFC East and will seal the deal on Sunday night.
Pick: Washington +4.5 in three-team teaser with Giants (+9)
Sunday's 1 p.m. ET games
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 44.5) at New York Giants
Fulghum: The winners of this game will keep their playoff hopes alive and become massive Eagles fans on Sunday night. If the Eagles beat Washington, the winner of this Cowboys-Giants game is your 2020 NFC East champion. What an accomplishment. I like the Cowboys, who have covered three consecutive games after starting the season an NFL-worst 2-10 against the spread (ATS). The offensive line has solidified and avoided more injury, the defense is playing better -- especially taking the ball away -- and quarterback Andy Dalton is capably distributing to his myriad weapons. Now that Ezekiel Elliott realized Tony Pollard might take his job, the Cowboys have a dynamic duo at running back that can expose a Giants defense that has allowed 257 yards to opposing running backs over the past two weeks at 4.9 yards per clip. Whether it is Colt McCoy or a clearly hobbled Daniel Jones at QB for the G-Men, I just don't think they have enough firepower to hang with the Cowboys.
Pick: Cowboys -3, over 44.5
Marks: The Cowboys have been playing well of late, but look at their past three opponents: the Bengals, 49ers and Eagles. The Giants' defense presents a much different challenge for Dalton & Co.; no way does the Cowboys quarterback throw for over 350 yards against the Giants like he did against Philly. I'm expecting a big game from Giants running back Wayne Gallman against a Dallas defense allowing almost 5 yards per carry, especially with bad weather conditions expected.
Pick: Giants +9 in two-team teaser with Washington (+4.5), Gallman over 53.5 rush yards (-115)
Walder: Looking at our numbers on Sunday, I knew -- even after an upgrade to Dallas' rating and a downgrade to the Giants' -- that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) was still going to favor the Giants in Week 17, a departure from the market. With the line getting up to 3, it's now a pretty strong take, too. FPI's opinion here is basically a play against recency bias. Dallas had its most efficient game of offense last weekend against the Eagles. And the Giants' defense -- their strength -- had its least efficient performance of the season last weekend against the Ravens. Our model isn't going to put that much stock in those singular performances relative to the other 14 each team has had. A field goal in Dallas' direction is an overcorrection in FPI's eyes, and I agree.
Pick: Giants +3
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-10, 42)
Fortenbaugh: Keep an eye on the weather in Cleveland this weekend, but assuming a tornado doesn't touch down in northeastern Ohio, I'm backing the Browns to hang some points. The Steelers' defense is surrendering an average of 25 points per game over their past four outings -- and that's with all of their starters giving maximum effort. What's going to happen in Week 17 when the Steelers have nothing to play for? Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already been ruled out, so I wouldn't be surprised if more starters -- especially on the defensive side -- were either told to take the day off or are given a quick hook early in the game.
Pick: Browns team total over 26.5 points
Marks: The Browns' facility was closed down for a bit Wednesday for COVID-19 tracing, which is a concern, but I'm anticipating quarterback Baker Mayfield, along with his wide receiving corps, will be active, as will Wyatt Teller and Jedrick Wills on the offensive line. I love the Browns team total over 26.5 points. The Steelers will be resting players, and coach Mike Tomlin should pull players on both the sides of the ball, especially in the second half.
Pick: Browns team total over 26.5 points
Baltimore Ravens (-13, 44.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Marks: The Ravens need to win to get into the postseason, so they will be one of few teams playing with all hands on deck. Baltimore has bounced back strong from its battle with COVID-19. Quarterback Lamar Jackson is averaging 50 rushing yards per game and Mark Andrews over 60 receiving yards per game over the past month, and the backfield has not missed a beat with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
The Bengals have won two in a row, but the Ravens' defense poses a totally different challenge for quarterback Brandon Allen.
Pick: Ravens -3 in three-team teaser with Rams (+13) and Colts (-4) Dobbins over rushing yards (TBD)
Schatz: The trick with picking Bengals games over the past few weeks has been trying to figure out just how good the Cincinnati offense is with backup quarterbacks. And the answer seems to be 'better than we thought.' After two good games in the past two weeks, Cincinnati's offensive DVOA without Joe Burrow (minus-16.9%) is almost back to its offensive DVOA with Burrow (minus-16.1%).
Meanwhile, the Ravens' offense has been improving in recent weeks, but that masks the decline from their defense. In Weeks 1-6, Baltimore's defense had a DVOA of minus-17.3%, third in the league. (Defensive ratings are better when they are lower.) Since its Week 7 bye, Baltimore has a defensive DVOA of plus-3.4%, which ranks just 18th. The Ravens should win this game and punch a playoff ticket, but the line is just a bit too large for my taste.
Pick: Bengals +13
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3, 40)
Best Survivor Pick Week 2 Nfl
Schatz: For a long time, there was speculation that Patriots coach Bill Belichick might throw this game to keep the Jets out of the top draft slot. That's no longer an issue, and I think Belichick really wants to finish this bad season on a good note. The market might be overrating the Jets now based on two wins, but unlike New York's previous opponent, the Patriots will be playing with wide receivers who have actually practiced with the team. (They might not be very good, but they've at least practiced!)
As bad as the Patriots have been this season, they've been better than the Jets, and that's probably still true even if they give Jarrett Stidham some run to see what they've got in their young backup quarterback. The biggest gap between these teams comes on special teams, where the Patriots are No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA and the Jets rank 29th. If quarterback Sam Darnold wants to win a third straight game, he'll need to overcome some bad field position.
Pick: Patriots -3
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, 50.5)
Bearman: These two teams squared off two weeks ago, and I wrote in this column that it was 'put up or go home time' for the Bucs' offense and picked their team total over 28 as my play. After being shut out in that Dec. 20 first half, likely marking the low point of the season, Tom Brady and the offense exploded for 31 second-half points and haven't stopped since, putting up 47 more last weekend vs. the Lions. That's 78 points in the past six quarters while gearing up for a playoff run. Tampa Bay has clinched a spot in the 14-team dance but still has a fantastic opportunity to clinch the 5-seed and a date with the NFC East champion, which is the best possible matchup. The offense is right where it needs to be, and I see that continuing in the last warm-up before the postseason.
The Falcons did a great job of slowing down the Chiefs juggernaut last weekend, but you have to wonder how much Kansas City put into that one. Brady gutted the Falcons' defense for 356 yards and 31 points in the second half two weeks ago. With a top-five NFL draft pick on the horizon for the Falcons, I don't expect a close one here. Plus, in the Super Bowl era, when teams meet twice in a three-week span, the team that covered the first meeting (which in this case was Atlanta) is 5-12-1 ATS in the second meeting.
Pick: Buccaneers -6.5, Bucs team total over 28
Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 54) at Detroit Lions
Marks: Dalvin Cook isn't playing Sunday, likely putting more emphasis on a Vikings passing game that is already averaging 40 attempts per game. Kirk Cousins has a juicy matchup against a Lions defense that is allowing multiple touchdowns to gunslingers each week. Vegas has this game total at 54, and I expect the Vikings to put up at least 30.
Pick: Cousins over 2.5 TD passes (+155)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (OFF)
Kezirian: I am not sold on Miami as a legitimate playoff team, but I do believe the Dolphins will win this game. The Bills will likely rest key players, and even if their starters suit up, I don't envision them playing the entire game. Coach Sean McDermott comes from the Andy Reid coaching tree, and that is fueling my speculation. In terms of quarterback, Matt Barkley is a pretty weak backup. Given the playoff implications, I have to imagine Miami does enough to eke out a victory.
Pick: Dolphins
Sunday's 4 p.m. ET games
Nfl Score Predictions
Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 51.5) at Chicago Bears
Fulghum: Keyed by the exemplary play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the Packers enter Week 17 with something significant to play for -- the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and a first-round playoff bye. Rodgers should deliver that in this matchup against a Bears team that needs a win to keep its postseason hopes alive. Good luck, Chicago. Rodgers is 18-7 ATS (including playoffs) in starts against the Bears, including three consecutive covers.
Pick: Packers -5.5, over 51.5
Marks: The Bears' secondary is dealing with injuries in the secondary, with both Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine out this week. meanwhile, Packers wide receiver Davante Adams has 17 touchdowns this season, and chances are he tags another one or two on this week. Rodgers has another week to make his MVP case, and I expect him to put on a show.
Pick: Rodgers over 2.5 TD passes, Adams scores TD and Packers win (+110)
Arizona Cardinals (-3, 41) at Los Angeles Rams
Marks: Kyler Murray is expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals this weekend, but I expect him to be limited with his leg injury. As for the Rams, John Wolford will get the start, and I expect Sean McVay will get creative with a fun game plan for him, considering Wolford is more athletic than Jared Goff. Wolford can run the ball, and the Cardinals rank 30th in rushing yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks. McVay owns Kliff Kingsbury and his Cardinals defense, averaging over 30 points and 400 total yards per game in their matchups. Don't underestimate Wolford come Sunday.
Pick: Rams +13 in three-team teaser with Ravens (-3) and Colts (-4), Wolford over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)
Tennessee Titans (-7.5, 56) at Houston Texans
Bearman: The Titans' offense keeps scoring and the defense hasn't been able to stop anyone not named Jacksonville. Tennessee games are 11-3-1 to the over this season and 20-4-1 since the start of last season when Ryan Tannehill starts at QB. This includes overs in six of the past seven games, going under only when Jacksonville couldn't score more than 10 points and neither team scored in the final quarter. The most recent time these two teams, met back in Week 6, there was 78 points and over 1,000 yards of total offense. The Titans have the third-highest scoring offense in the league (30 points per game) and are averaging an NFL-best 33.5 PPG over the past six weeks despite scoring only 14 Sunday night at Lambeau Field.
The Titans' defense is 28th in the league in pass yards allowed (271.9), which is a bad recipe with Deshaun Watson coming to town. Watson has been one of the best QBs in the league the past six weeks, averaging 320 pass yards per game with 12 TDs, one interception and a 73.8 QBR -- and he should have a field day vs. the Titans' secondary, like Aaron Rodgers did last weekend. Oh, and the Texans' defense is even worse than the Titans', ranking 30th or worse in all major categories. The great thing about picking overs in Titans games is that Tennessee doesn't blow anyone out, so both teams are fighting to the very end.
Pick: Over 56, Titans team total over 32.5
Walder: The recipe for a longest reception over is fairly simple; you need a player that gets deep, is targeted often, makes catches when targeted and, ideally, garners extra yards after catch. A.J. Brown checks all four boxes. Among the 99 wide receivers with at least 200 routes run, Brown ranks sixth in depth three seconds into a route (per NFL Next Gen Stats), 10th in target rate, has a catch percentage two points over expectation and records 3.7 extra yards of YAC relative to Next Gen Stats' model. Despite that, Brown's line here is just 22.5, not particularly high for a high-end receiver. I think that's because Brown's average depth of target actually only ranks 44th and the Titans are a run-first offense. Those are causes of concern, but it's not enough to move me off a middling line for an ideal player to either catch or break a long one.
Pick: Brown longest reception over 22.5 yards (-120)
Marks: Watson has had a great season, but his stats often get overlooked since he plays for a losing team. Last week he tossed for over 300 yards (yet again) and three touchdowns. And this week he has a prime matchup against a Titans secondary that has allowed over 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing teams' lead receivers. Brandin Cooks received 10 targets last week, and I expect that volume to continue with Will Fuller still on suspension.
As for the Titans, Derrick Henry is 223 rushing yards away from becoming the eighth NFL running back to rush for 2,000 yards in a season. Houston is allowing 5.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and I expect Tennessee to do everything in its power to help Henry reach the 2,000 mark. Why not throw a little coin on it and cheer him on?
Pick: Watson over 275.5 passing yards (+105), Cooks scores TD (+138), Henry over 117.5 rush yards (-115)
Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 46) at San Francisco 49ers
Kezirian: The Seahawks have the slimmest of chances to score a first-round bye, needing a victory and then losses by both Green Bay and New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Niners demonstrated last weekend that they have not bailed on this season. Star tight end George Kittle returned from injury and posted 92 receiving yards, helping San Francisco upset Arizona. C.J. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens and provided better quarterback play. Seattle coach Pete Carroll has said his team will go all out, and the Seahawks play at the same time as the Packers and Saints. But does that mean Carroll will leave quarterback Russell Wilson in the entire game? Plus, let's give San Francisco a chance, given it is a bit healthier and can run on anyone.
Pick: 49ers +5.5
New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 47.5) at Carolina Panthers
Schatz: Take out the Taysom Hill games and New Orleans goes up 5% in offensive DVOA and 8.6% in weighted offensive DVOA. But the real gap between these teams comes on defense, where the Saints rank third (fifth if you take out Week 12 when Denver didn't have a quarterback) and the Panthers are just 25th. In particular, the Panthers rank 31st on third and fourth downs, so their defense has a real problem getting off the field. And the Panthers are just 29th against running backs in the passing game -- not a great weakness to have when facing Drew Brees and Alvin Kamara. The Saints have real incentive to play this game seriously since they're still in the race for a first-round bye and should cover this spread.
Pick: Saints -6.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 44) at Kansas City Chiefs
Schatz: How can you pick a team that's sitting its starters in preparation for the playoffs? There's actually a history in the NFL of good teams sitting starters and winning anyway, whether it's the 2004 Steelers behind Tommy Maddox keeping Buffalo out of the playoffs or last season's Ravens with Robert Griffin III running all over the Steelers. And we've already seen that the Chiefs can play well without Patrick Mahomes; Matt Moore last season finished up a blowout win over Denver and then went 1-1 in Mahomes' place, losing to Green Bay by just one score. I'm guessing most of the Chiefs' defense will still be playing and playing with pride, and nothing the Chiefs do to sit starters can solve the problems of the Los Angeles special-teams unit, one of the worst in history.
Pick: Chiefs +3.5
Fortenbaugh: Since 1990, teams that have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs entering Week 17 are an abysmal 9-23 against the spread in their last regular-season game. And that's on top of the fact that Kansas City has failed to cover the number in seven straight contests. Coach Andy Reid isn't going to risk the health and well-being of his defending champs for a meaningless matchup against the Chargers. However, Los Angeles has been playing competent football over the last month of the season, winning and covering the number in three straight. The Chargers want to finish strong and I'm sure the Chiefs will be happy to oblige, thus harming the draft position of their divisional rival.
Pick: Chargers -3.5
Kezirian: I am with Joe on this. The Chiefs have barely looked interested over the past month in games that matter, so what makes us think they will care about this game? Reid's comments this week illustrate a coach who believes his team can flip a switch after two weeks off when the Chiefs play their first playoff game. That 9-23 ATS trend Joe mentioned carries weight for me, showing how a top seed's focus is beyond Week 17. The betting market has sharpened over the years, so I would argue that record is a bit misleading, as oddsmakers have smartened up with how certain teams approach Week 17. Even so, I am fine laying points on the road in this unique setting.
Pick: Chargers -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-14, 50)
Best Nfl Parlay Bets Week 2
Marks: The Jaguars must be thrilled to have prevailed in the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Mike Glennon is getting the start at quarterback this weekend, running back James Robinson is shut down for the season and wide receiver DJ Chark is dealing with a shin injury. With playoff hopes in mind, the Colts are going to roll all over Jacksonville. Philip Rivers should toss a few touchdowns, and I expect him to share the wealth among wide receivers T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal.
Pick: Colts -4 in three-team teaser with Rams (+13) and Ravens (-3), Jonathan Taylor over 83.5 rushing yards (-120) , Nyheim Hines over 2.5 receptions (-115), Pascal TD & Colts win (+190)
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 50.5) at Denver Broncos
Fulghum: The Raiders' offense is set up to take advantage of a reeling Broncos defense that is missing the following key pieces: Von Miller, Jurrell Casey and Mike Purcell. Bradley Chubb might also miss his second straight game. Denver coach Vic Fangio is a great defensive mind, but he is playing short-handed. On the other side, QB Drew Lock is as volatile as they come (perhaps Jared Goff has something to say about that), but this matchup against a Charmin-soft Raiders defense sets up as a ceiling game for the Broncos signal-caller. Even if Lock is off, perhaps his propensity to turn the ball over leads to short fields or easy points and helps us hit the over.
Pick: Over 50.5
Marks: Jerry Jeudy was targeted 15 times last week but had a horrendous day, concerting only six into catches. Look for the Broncos to go right back to Jeudy on Sunday to build his confidence. The Raiders pose a favorable matchup that will allow Jeudy to rebound.
Pick: Jeudy over 3.5 receptions (+120), Jeudy over 39.5 receiving yards (-115)