Blog followers that made a two dollar wager on the exotics with my 2018 Florida Derby (G1) picks and honorable mention, Hofburg, could have potentially cashed in for a total of $823.20 with the exacta paying $50.80, the trifecta paid $309.40 and the superfecta paid $463.00. The $1-million Florida Derby is Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and the 170-point Kentucky Derby prep not only headlines a 14-race, stakes-laden card but also anchors the mandatory payout Pick 6 with.

• 2018 Florida Derby – March 31st, 2018, 6:36 ET – Gulfstream Park – Purse $1,100,000. (Includes $100,000 – FTBOA – FL TB Owner Brdr Assoc Fund) (Plus $100,000 – State Bred). Three Year Olds. Nominations close Sunday, March 19. $1,100,000 Guaranteed, which includes $100,000 for registered Florida-bred read more One And One Eighth.
• Sunday’s NBA Basketball Free Picks & Predictions 2/28/21 Jay Cooper - February 27, 2021 Charlotte at Sacramento - 10:05 ET Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

The Florida Derby has, quite simply, become a factory for Kentucky Derby winners in recent years. Three of the last five Derby winners had won this race as their last outing before the big show - Always Dreaming last year, Nyquist the year before, and Orb in 2013. This success is nothing new, either - 20 Triple Crown race winners since 1955 also won this race, including five since Barbaro won the race in 2006. Recently, the race has also become a playground for Todd Pletcher - he has had three of the last four winners, including Always Dreaming last year, who ran the fastest Florida Derby since Alydar in 1978. Pletcher has a very live runner here in Audible. And he has a strong field of eight other horses to run against. In this topsy-turvy year on the Triple Crown trail, it is very possible that this race could produce another Derby winner. Here's how the field shapes up (horse, jockey, trainer, morning line odds):

Audible, John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher, 9/5: This horse won two of three last year, but he rose to prominence when he won the Holy Bull, the first of the two major Florida Derby preps at Gulfstream, back in early February in his stakes debut. He hasn't won since - not a particular concern since Pletcher loves long breaks between races for his runners. Enticed, the favorite in the Holy Bull, who was a disappointing fourth, came back to win the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct next time out, so that flatters Audible. He likes the track, he's training nicely, and Pletcher owns this race. It's tough to discard him, but it's also tough to love the price.

Promises Fulfilled, Robby Albarado, Dale Romans, 3/1: In his lone start this year, this colt won the Fountain of Youth, the second of the two Gulfstream Florida Derby preps. And he ran in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November, a race that has evolved into an important powerful key race on the Derby trail this year. The horse has been at Gulfstream all winter, and he has trained fairly well on the surface - and won, of course. He's a factor as well, though the presence of Albarado in the irons is a big strike against for me.

Catholic Boy, Irad Ortiz Jr., Jonathan Thomas, 7/2: This is an experienced colt - this is his fifth graded stakes start. He won two of the three he ran in as a two-year-old, failing only in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf when he finished fourth. In his lone race this year in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, he was in good shape down the stretch as the heavy favorite but was outkicked by a 10/1 runner and wound up second. His talent is real, and he got a nice jockey upgrade here, but I don't trust him enough to bet him to win.

Strike Power, Luis Saez, Mark Hennig, 4/1: This colt has run three times, and all have been at Gulfstream. He broke his maiden two days before Christmas. Then he won his first stakes try in the Swale in early February. He was the second choice in the Fountain of Youth and wound up second - but behind 18/1 shot Promises Fulfilled instead of heavy favorite Good Magic. His last work was spectacular, so he is in form right now. He's a factor, but I like other horses better - especially in terms of value.

Mississippi, Julien Leparoux, Mark Casse, 12/1: The breeding stands out here first of all. Sire Pioneerof the Nile sired Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Storm Cat, Mississippi's damsire, not only was a legendary sire on his own right but was also the great-grandsire of American Pharoah. Those are not bad bloodlines to share. If you bet this horse, though, you have to believe in those bloodlines a lot, because there isn't a whole lot else. He is making his stakes debut after four starts. His only win was in a maiden race in his second start back in November at Churchill Downs. He has run twice at Gulfstream this winter in allowance races, finishing second both times. He's working well, though, and I like the connections and love the breeding, so I'll have him in my exotics - but not up top

Hofburg, Jose Ortiz, Bill Mott, 20/1: There is a real shortage of experience here. He ran once at Saratoga last August and then was out of action until he won his maiden race on March 3 here at Gulfstream Park. And that's it. But that race - and his breeding - was enough to get him this shot here. He is a son of Tapit, a sire that has dominated Derby entries in recent years. And Hofburg is a half-brother to Emollient, a special filly who won four Grade 1 races for Mott a few years back. Mott is very cautious typically, so if he thinks the horse deserves a shot then it probably does. The price is more than fair, and he should be a part of exotics plays.

Storm Runner, Tyler Gaffalione, Dale Romans, 20/1: This is the 'other' Romans horse, and he is easy to dismiss. He took four tries to break his maiden. His seventh start came in the Fountain of Youth, and he was a dismal seventh. He just isn't good enough.

Tip Sheet, Edgar Zayas, Stanley Gold, 30/1: This local horse has made 10 career starts already, which is kind of incredible. He has just two wins - in a maiden claiming and an optional claiming. His only graded stakes start was in the Holy Bull, and he was an outclassed sixth. He's not on this level.

Millionaire Runner, Jose Batista, Jaime Mejia, 50/1: Like Tip Sheet, this colt has already made 10 starts. He's done even worse, though - he has just one win and was seventh in his only graded stakes start. Outclassed.

Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of member's picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc's Sports list of expert sports handicappers. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free .

Read more articles by Trevor Whenham

$1.66 million carryover for Rainbow 6 mandatory payout

Race: Florida Derby-G1, Race 14, Gulfstream Park, Saturday, March 28, 2020
Distance: 1 1/8 Miles
Surface: Dirt, Purse: $750,000

2020 Florida Derby Picks

1. Ete Indien
2. Tiz the Law
3. Gouverneur Morris
4. Candy Tycoon
5. Rogue Element

Florida Derby Analysis

With the powers that be trying to shut down Gulfstream Park racing after Saturday, this could be the last chance to make a score over the next few months. There’s a $1.66 million carryover in the Rainbow 6, and the mandatory payout on Saturday means there will be millions more poured into the pool, especially considering there are few other sports betting opportunities these days.

Florida Derby 2018 Predictions College Bowl

The Florida Derby is the final race in the Rainbow 6 sequence, so let’s see if we can get it right.

Ete Indien will likely attempt to steal the Florida Derby the same way he did the Fountain of Youth-G2 in his last start, but he’ll have to go a sixteenth of a mile further to do it against more speed and a horse that beat him handily two starts ago, morning-line favorite Tiz the Law.

Ete Indien drew post 12 for the Florida Derby, and you have to think he’s going to be sent early to clear the field and slow down the pace. There’s more speed in this race than there was in the Fountain of Youth, but he did look awfully good running away from the field in that race and should be a square price at morning-line odds of 4-1.

Tiz The Law was forced to take back midway through the Holy Bull Stakes-G3 in his first start off the layoff, but he still disposed of Ete Indien rather easily in that race to win by three lengths. Listed as the morning-line favorite at 6/5, if he runs back to that race, he might not even need any pace to set the race up for him. If he improves, he’ll be too good for this bunch.

The other off-the-pacer we like a bit in here is Gouverneur Morris, who makes his second start off the layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher after winning an N1X allowance race at Tampa Bay. He’s not flashy, and his numbers are lower than the top pair in here, but there’s a chance he could improve enough to knock one of the top two out of the exacta.

Despite the large field in the Florida Derby, it’s difficult to find anything else to play with any confidence. Almost every other horse in here seems to have already run as fast as they are going to run, which isn’t good enough to beat Tiz the Law or Ete Indien.

As Seen On TV tracked Ete Indien from between horses in the Fountain of Youth and finished 8 3/4-lengths back of that one in third. Sprinter Shivaree ran an okay race in the six-furlong Hutcheson at Gulfstream Park in his last but couldn’t out finish an 18-1 shot and lost by a neck. Disc Jockey also looked average in his last, when despite running a decent number in the seven-furlong American Fabius Stakes, he couldn’t hold off a 75-1 longshot in the drive. These horses are much better than what he faced in that race.

My First Grammy is still a maiden and is being thrown to the wolves here after showing speed and tiring to finish second in his first start off the layoff going a mile. The highly thought of Independence Hall has some class speed but can also come from just off the pace, as indicated by his second-place finish in the Sam F Davis-G3 at Tampa Bay in his last start. The problem with him is that he didn’t show much willingness to fight back in that race in the stretch, and Sole Volante easily ran by him. That won’t be good enough to win this race.

To win this Florida Derby, a horse is going to have to be a “tryer”. Taking a flyer on Candy Tycoon at 20-1 on the morning line might not be a bad idea for exotic wagers. He was wide in the Fountain of Youth but did give his best to rally and hold the place behind Ete Indien. That was his first stakes try, and a little improvement with a nice trip could gain him a superfecta slot.

Sassy But Smart comes into the race off an average fourth-place finish in the Palm Beach-G3 on the turf at Gulfstream. He’s only run once on the dirt, finishing third going five furlongs in his second-lifetime start after showing speed. He’ll need more of both class and speed in here.

Rogue Element draws into the widest post outside Ete Indien with the scratches of Ajaaweed and Soros. Still a maiden for Calumet Farm, he gave bettors a thrill in his last when he showed speed going a mile and just failed to hold on, finishing second beaten a neck at a whopping 116-1! He looks like he could press from the outside. If he improves slightly and speed is holding, he might just hold on for a small piece of the superfecta at big odds. He’s definitely only a crazy flyer play though, as jockey Tyler Gaffalione moves to Disc Jockey for this race.

We’ll stick with a proven class speed, and tryer in Ete Indien to win and place and hope he gets the lone speed or slow pressing trip he needs to hold off Tiz The Law in the drive, but we’ll be using both on our Rainbow 6 ticket.

Let’s hope they can get it home for us!

How to Bet on Horses

Read our Race Betting Guide to get insight on all of the types of wagering options in horse racing. Dig deeper below to get tips on the most popular exotic wagers with winning strategies provided by expert Kenneth Strong.

Recent Articles

Florida Derby 2018 Predictions Ncaa Basketball

• Big 12 Tourney Picks: Iowa State vs. Oklahoma
• BYU Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Pick 3/9/21
• Boston College vs. Duke Total & Spread Pick
• West Ham United vs. Manchester United Pick 3/14/21
• Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Pick 3/8/21